Showing posts from October, 2018

Flash Weather: 2018-19 Winter Weather Forecast

Well, folks. We’re a month removed from the autumnal equinox…and I think we all know what that means…

…break out the fall décor (if you haven’t already), have yourself a very merry pumpkin-spice latte, and check Cameron’s blog for yet another preliminary winter weather forecast.
Now, I admit: while last year’s winter weather forecast verified for the most part, I underestimated the magnitude of late December-early January cold fearing a multi-week blowtorch would skew monthly temperature means (as it did January and February 2017); however, as it turned out, there were very few stretches December 2017 to March 2018 featuring consistent +5-10 departures. So while I caught the overall pattern in advance, I belittled the margin on account of recency bias.Had I removed such predisposition from the equation, my results would have been more accurate. But as they say, you live and learn, right?

As far as what we can expect in the winter ahead, while we can only speculate off trends and unf…